Meet The Obama Official Who War-Gamed Iran And Warns About an Escalating Global Catastrophe
Ilan Goldenberg and his colleagues war-gamed the possible consequences resulting from a strike on Iran. What the Trump administration has managed to do in the past three is the “worst-case scenario.”
THE LEFT HOOK with Wajahat Ali and Ilan Goldenberg (Substack)
Mar 21
After three weeks, Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu have launched an illegal, unnecessary war with Iran in which they have replaced an aging, dying Ayatollah Khameini with his younger, more radical son.
On Friday, the Trump administration announced it was lifting sanctions on Iran, the same country they’re bombing, to address the growing energy and gas price crisis that is disrupting world markets.
So, Trump is actually going to make Iran richer to destroy it, or something, I guess. But he’s still committed to regime change until he isn’t, and the war is winding down, even though he’s sending thousands of troops to the region and threatening to take over Kharg Island.
Just listen to the king and daddy of MAGA explain his brilliant strategy to the press: “I may have a plan or I may not.”
Meanwhile, civilian casualties are rising, Israel plans to take over Southern Lebanon after displacing nearly 1 million people, and regional allies have lost any semblance of security as Iran retaliates against their infrastructure. Contrary to Trump’s wishful thinking, he can’t just “open” the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has choked off as a weapon of retaliation, and if he does use force, then he plunges the United States into an unwinnable quagmire that will waste money and lives.
Who has benefited so far? Russia, extremists, the military-industrial complex, and America’s allies who see the once-respected superpower lose its global standing.
Wonderful. Brilliant.
Even as he war-gamed and strategized the worst-case scenario for the Obama administration, Ilan Goldenberg never predicted any administration behaving in such an idiotic and foolish manner. Goldenberg, editor of Word on the Street substack, served as Iran team chief in the Office of the Secretary of Defence, and one of his jobs was to plan what would happen if Israel initiated an attack on Iran. His colleagues role-played as the United States, Israel, and neighbouring Gulf States. They never imagined anyone being so dumb as to assassinate the Ayatollah during Ramadan, but here we are in 2026.
Goldenberg wrote a piece in Zeteo discussing the 5 lessons he learned from that experience, which the Trump administration has refused to consider or acknowledge. Tragically, he believes we are now in the “worst-case scenario.”
